Or perhaps not so much.
A large part of Ben Mauk's gaudy stats can be attributed to UC's lack of a feature back. So glaring was their lack of a solid rusher that they only had two players eclipse 100 carries on the season-and one of them was Ben Mauk! The depth chart is now barren at running back, the icy hands of inevitability (by which I mean graduation) have claimed their top 4 running backs, leaving only rising junior Jacob Ramsey.
On the flipside, the team does return their top four pass catchers, amongst them rising sophomore Marcus Bennett who flashed big play ability with an 80 yard TD catch against San Diego State and a 70 yard TD catch in a narrow loss to WVU. Likewise the team returns backup quarterback. Grotza, who should have a leg-up on uber-athletic ND transfer Demestrius Jones, has three years experience at UC and has thrown 570 career passes (also worth noting are the 40 and 23 sacks he took in his freshman and sophomore years respectively) and proved extremely effective in spot-duty for Ben Mauk. While Mauk was sidelined against Miami of Ohio, Grotza threw for 290 en route to an obscene 71% pass completion and against Marshall the following week he put up 142 yards (modest numbers by all means, but the Bearcats rushed for 217 yards) while completing 70% of his passes. Grotza;s numbers might be inflated by the fact that Marshall's pass defense was absolutely abysmal (110th nationally in pass efficiency defense, they allowed 23 TDs while picking off only 4...shit). Miami U's pass defense was respectable, however, ranking 26th nationally in passing ypg and 56th in pass efficiency defense (against a pretty decent array of passing teams, no less. Namely Ball St, Colorado, and Minnesota), so using competition as a measuring stick is pretty much a total wash.
The O-Line graduates only two starters and returns second team All Big East tackle Trevor Canfield.
Brian Kelly's system should allow Grotza to step in for Mauk without missing much of a beat. But given the total lack of experience at running back Grotza may have to shoulder even more of the offense than his predecessor did. That said don't think for a second that Kelly will hesitate to yank Grotza in favor of Demetrius Jones, in fact I'd look for Jones to take over the reigns as starter either after the impending disaster that will be the Oklahoma game or mid-October when the conference slate starts.
As riddled (punny shit, eh?) with question marks as the offense is, thats about how good the defense is. The Bearcats have had a top 25 rushing defense for two years now and don't expect that to change with the return of All Big East DT Terril Byrd. Naturally losing leading tackler and ABE safety Haruki Nakamura hurts. The return of All Big East corners Mike Mickens and DeAngelo Smith leaves the secondary in more than capable hands.
The only real issues on defense seem to be the linebackers. Last year the group warranted a mere "meh", now facing the loss of Corey Smith the group could be a trouble spot (especially against a methed up WVU). As was the case last year, the d-line should be able to mask any inadequacies by the LB corp. Between Byrd and badasss to be Lamonte Nelms and Adam Hoeppel they bring back 24 tfl and 17 sacks. Look for UC to extend its streak of top notch defenses.
By far the biggest thing Cincinnati has going for it is its schedule. Other than a death march into Norman their first five games are against Eastern Kentucky, Miami of Ohio, Akron, and Marshall. Holy sweet shit! To get SEC respect I guess you have to play an SEC OOC schedule. That's fucking pathetic, taking EKU out of the picture (in true SEC fashion, they open with a DIAA team) thats a 13-24 record last year. If UC doesn't start the season 5-1 then Brian Kelly should be excommunicated. By the same notion if they get to 5-1 and someone assholes (sic: the Associated Press) take it upon themselves to reward such pansy ass scheduling with a top 25 ranking then said assholes should be excommunicated.
Their conference slate starts them off against a Rutgers team devoid of offense. Sad to say but without Ray Rice, Eric Foster, and Ron Girault Rutgers is an average team at best. Sure Mike Teel will pass for some big yards, but he's proven to be an absolute mind-numbing idiot at (most) times and is a lock for a few picks a game. Gone is Rice and gone is the play fake sir.
Next up they have Connecticut. Superstition. Cannot comment. I hope its a great game.
South Florida visits Cincy. See the paragraph about Mike Teel. That's Matt Groethe. Groethe giveth and Groethe taketh away. One second he can escape impossible pressure and complete a pass for a first down on the opposite sideline while falling down with a pack of bison stampeding after him all against triple coverage, the next he drops back into the pocket and lobs one up for a pick. Definitive feast or famine player. (compare his game against Auburn to his game against the Bearcats). I'd expect Cincinnati force Groethe into making the bond-headed sort of mistakes we've come to expect from him en route to a win.
West Virginia and Louisville are on tap next. And both are teams I'll have to look at in more detail to be able to make a firm, definitive statement as to how UC matches up against these teams. How will West Virginia respond to new OC Jeff Mullen's offense? Will it look anything like the Rodriguez spread? How will Hunter Cantwell play as Brian Brohm's successor? How will the offense respond to the loss of Harry Douglass and Mario Urrutia? Hopefully I'll I get around to a Louisville and WVU Look Around by middle of next week.
Pitt is another team I'd like to look at in greater detail.
Syracuse is likely to continue the trend established by the Greg Robinson era. That is to say that there is no reason what-so-ever to expect improvements, at least at a cursory glance.
The end the season with a trip to Hawaii. I cannot think of a better road game to end the season, to be quite frank. Beautiful weather and an almost sure fire victory. Hawaii's nucleus is long gone as well as the program's architect. The Warriors will learn the hard way that success is cyclical and when you're a non-BCS team playing in one of the smallest states in the Union with some of the shittiest facilities imaginable your period of upswing will be more brief than most.
Way Too Early Prognostications:
Wins: EKU, Miami (OH), Akron, Marshall, Rutgers, USF, Syracuse, Hawaii
Losses: Oklahoma, WVU,
Swings: Louisville, Pitt
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