Mumme Poll, Week 8

I begin this post like I tend to end sex...with a sincere apology and attempt at contrition (although I've never had to pay Blogspot).  Posting was weak last week.  It was exam week and we all know how that goes.  

This week, however, wants not for content as we have the first edition of the BCS poll (meaning the pro-/anti-playoff mobs sharpen their pitchforks), three legitimate undefeated teams, a realization that UConn might be mediocre (at best), and status quo in the ACC.  Of course, by writing about all of these potential/impending posts I pretty much accept that they will never be written and I'll begin the next post with the usual excuses (studying, Gossip Girls, invasive fungi).

But enough about me, let's talk about you.  Onto the Mumme Poll!  

Top Five:

Bama- Yeah I know: a win is a win is a win is a win.  They're in the top five because they won, however their boa constrictor grip is a little looser than it was last week.  The injury to the gargantuan NT Terrance Cody is the worst thing that could have happened to the Tide; Matt Hinton points out that it was not until Cody left the game that Mississippi found an offense.   The evidence is damning, Bama needs Cody in a big, big way.  With Cody, the Tide held the (formerly) vaunted Clemson rushing attack to 0 yards (that happened months ago and its STILL impressive) and the vaulting Knoshown Moreno to 34, and, until Ole Miss, the Tide gave up 0, 2.69, 1.91, 2.97, 3.13, and 1.75 yards per carry.  The Rebs mustered only 6 carries for positive yardage (for a whopping, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 yards) and a total of 99 yards on 6 possessions, 5 of which went for three or fewer plays, while Cody was in the game.  But the Rebs went for 218 on 7 possessions after Cody went down.  The importance of Terrance Cody cannot be overstated.  Although...the Tide play Tennessee next week and a defensive line consisting of an third grader, my sister, and a half a box of Krispy Kremes could hold Tennessee to under 50 yards rushing.  

Texas- Wow...just wow.  Colt McCoy was perfect, enough has been said of that.  The offense scored touchdowns on 8 of 11 possessions (the 11th possession went 65 yards and ended the game, could easily have been a 9th TD) and had 3 drives of more than 80 yards...enough has been said of that.  Perhaps the most impressive bit from the Horns demolition derby, and there was a LOT of impressiving done by the Horns, is this: Mizzou had -6 yards through the first four possessions, three of which went 3 and out.  While the pass defense has been unsurprisingly torched, the run Texas run defense has only once surrendered 2 or more yards per carry, and they've held Oklahoma and Mizzou to 1.85 and 1.58 ypc respectively.  A cliche dictates that you win by running and stopping the run (see Bama, above), and Texas is certainly stopping the run.  Their porous pass defense makes me think that they'll trip up in a shoot out somewhere, probably Texas Tech or Okie State, but for the time being this is easily, easily the nation's best team. 

Penn State- The Lions were in trouble the first half.  The Lions were in business the second half.  So what changed from one half to the next?  Blogger Black Shoe Diaries attributes the successful second half to certain changes in the linebacking corps, not to take away from the follies of Nick Sheridan, who has absolutely no business playing quarterback at an FBS level, let alone at a program of Michigan's prestige.  Royster was his usual beast-tastic self and Clark went for his customary 200-250 total yards and a few touchdowns in a game that can be summed up as "easy-peezy-lemon-squeezy."  If the team gets by Ohio State this weekend then all that stands between PSU and an undefeated season, in what is undoubtedly JoePa's swan song, is a sneaky tough trip to Iowa City, the Hoosiers, and Sparty.  

Florida- I was tempted to put Georgia here, as Florida was off and Georgia's record is very comparable, if not slightly better.  Florida's dominating win over a s0-s0 LSU team is as good as the sum total of the Georgia's win over ASU and Vandy.  Both teams' have hung a half-dozen-ish mediocre pelts on their belts but get chances to really proves themselves during the coming weeks, with Georgia playing the same so-so LSU and the WLOCP.  

     But for whatever reason I consider Florida's loss to Ole Miss more reasonable than Georgia's prison raping by Bama.   The fact that I'm still high on Florida (sort of like Marcus Thomas!) and the emergence of the sprinting sprites Jeff Demps and Brandon James give the Gators the nod here.  If the LSU game was any indication, this team is only beginning to fulfill the expectations I laid down during the off-season.  

USC- There's nothing funny about a team who surrenders all of ten points in a three week stretch, and those ten coming all at once against Oregon.  That being said, you just know this team is going to slip up somewhere-you just know it.  The question with USC is always when?  They look unbeatable but, if you're aware of their trend of head-scratching losses, its a given that they'll drop a few that they shouldn't.  Will it be Arizona this weekend, Cal next, Stanford again? Who knows?  

     I'm hoping that loss comes soon because I really don't want to hear the talking heads of ESPN deem USC as "playing the best football of anyone right now."  What the hell does that even mean?

Rest of the Top Twelve:

Okie State

Tulsa 

Utah

Boise State

Georgia

Ohio State

Oklahoma

Notes and Musings

- Tulsa is in here only as long as they are undefeated.  I give them the nod based upon their record and the silly numbers they put up.  

-I'm glad Okie State beat Baylor as badly as they did as the win gave me an excuse to drop Texas Tech.  

-God have mercy if I have to rank Georgia Tech or Boston College anytime soon.

-Pitt/USF is bound to break the Big East shutout...aren't they.

Top 25: Justifications, Prognostications, and Hastily Put-Together Garbage

Conspicuously Abesent: Rutgers, Kansas, VaTech

-In case you haven't gotten it by now: I don't like Rutgers.  No sir, not one bit.  However, my bias is by no means responsible for their absence from my top 25.  To put it simply: Rutgers is not top 25 caliber.  I do not see how this offense will continue to produce without the pinball Ray Rice and All Big East tackles Pedro Sosa and Jeremy Zuttah (not to mention guard Mike Fladell).  Sure Mike Teel, Kenny Britt, and Tiquan Underwood put up some fabulous numbers but their outrageous production was due almost entirely to a miserable non-con schedule.  Look at Teel's conference vs. non-con splits (sans the Army game in which he threw a measly four passes).  Against OOC teams (the 82, 119, 44, and 90th ranked pass efficiency D's in DI...and D-IAA Norfolk State) Teel threw for 13 TD's against 3 INT's for 295.2 ypg and 62.6 completion pct.  Not bad.  Now look at his conference numbers.  7 TD's against 9 picks, 236.7 ypg, and 58.5 completion pct.  Quite the split there.  Do any of us think these numbers improve without Rice and three new starters on the o-line?

Kansas, oh Kansas.  Where do I begin.  Rock M Nation covered Kansas as well as anyone could hope here.  Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech rotate onto the schedule this year, and those three games, as well as a sneaky tough matchup against Colorado (a game the Jayhawks should have lost in 2007) and a trip to Columba, could all easily end in loses.  I'd be shocked to see Kansas stay home for the post season.  Likewise, I'd be shocked to see them win more than 7 games.

VaTech could win their division and still be unworthy of a top 25 ranking.  The only reason anyone lists the Hokies in their preseason polls are because of the belief that a Bud Foster D is a Bud Foster D is a Bud Foster D.  Unfortunately for the Hokies, Bud Foster is about all they have left on defense.  They've lost 3 starters on the defensive line, standout linebackers Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi, and stud corner Brandon Flowers.  While there is hope for the defense (like I said, Bud Foster is still calling the shots), not even the most optimistic of Hokies can reasonably expect much from the offense.  Gone is Brandon Ore, down go Jahre Cheeseman and Kenny Lewis, gone are the top five (breath deep, repeat: top fucking five) receivers, and gone is tackle Duane Brown.  The two highlights on offense are an inexperienced sophomore QB in Tyrod Taylor (the QB of the future is, sadly, not the QB of the now) and an incoming frosh RB Ryan Williams.  If you thought the Hokies had trouble scoring last year (see 7 points against LSU and ECU, 10 against BC, and 23 against Ohio), you ain't seen nothing yet.

Hey!  USC isn't your top 3!  Dude!  

It seems that everyone is pegging USC somewhere in the 1-4 range and they don't know why.  They do it because USC...well...they're USC.  Its as if they are entitled to a high preseason ranking.  Yet the Trojans are as vulnerable as they've ever been in the past seven or so years.  They return one starter from the o-line, are breaking in a new quarterback (who is out for a few weeks with a dislocated patella), feature a mess of unproven talent at RB, and a mess of yet to (and unlikely to be) realized talent at wide receiver.  Even last year the Trojan offense was by and large very average.  The few games they dominated (633 yards against Illinois to cap off the season, 509 against Wazzu, and 508 against ASU) came against clearly inferior teams. 

Against Arizona (a narrow 20-13 win) their drive chart from the middle of the first quarter until the tail end of the third looks like such: punt, interception, interception, end of half, punt, punt, punt.  All told, those "drives" totaled 28 plays for 65 yards, with 43 of those yards coming on one 12 drive that ended in that last "punt".  Even the Trojan scoring drives were thoroughly unimpressive; other than a 10 play, 85 yard march for a TD in the first and a 15 play, 95 yard drive ending in a field goal to put the game away, they mustered a 10 play, 21 yard drive resulting in a field goal (the mighty Trojans...21 yards in 10 plays) and a 25 yard touchdown pass from Sanchez (he of "hide the patella" fame) to the departed Fred Davis.  

Similar to the 'Zona game was the Trojans' win against Oregon State.  Again, look at the drive chart.  The longest drive of the game was 54 yards, resulting in a TD.  Other than that you have 9 yards in 7 plays for a FG, 47 yards in 4 plays for a TD (26 of those yards came on the TD pass),  and 14 plays in 3 yards for another TD.  Mind you this was entirely in the first half.  The second half was a completely different story, reading: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, end of game.  Their average second half drive was 4.5 plays for 19 yards.  I understand the Beavers had a wicked awesome defense (giving up only 70 rushing yards per game...yikes!), however a team purportedly possessing as much talent as USC should have done better than that.  

My point is: USC should expect to see their offense drop off (perhaps significantly if the o-line can't gell and the wide receivers continue to underachieve) from last year.  And when they did all of that last year...eesh.  Top 5, certainly not.  Top 10, certainly, by based entirely upon the strength of their defense. 

LSU?  Top 5?  But...but...that can't be!

Admit it.  If Perrilloux were still a Tiger, LSU would be a run away number 1.  Even without Perrilloux this team is still absolutely loaded.  In fact, they may well be better than they were last year.  

Consider this.  Gone is Early Doucet, but Terrance Tolliver, Demetrius Byrd, Brandon LaFell, and Richard Dickson all return.  Gone is the steady "war-daddy" Jacob Hester and with him his team leading 1103 rushing yards, but the explosive Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, and Richard Murphy all return.  Ciron Black and Herman Johnson continue to anchor the best left side of any o-line in college football.  And, in spite of the loss of all-everything Glenn Dorsey, the d-line is still the best in America...and may even be better than last year's! 

In fact, the only holes this team has are at quarterback, obviously, and in the secondary, where they lose Craig Steltz, Johnathan Zenon, and Chevis Jackson.  Personnel wise, the holes in the secondary will be filled the immensely talented Chad Jones (LSU's top recruit last year) and Patrick Peterson (top incoming recruit); schematically, however, expect any deficiencies in the secondary to be more than masked by pressure generated by a murderer's row of a defensive line.