Showing posts with label Poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Poll. Show all posts

Monday, October 20, 2008

Mumme Poll, Week 8

I begin this post like I tend to end sex...with a sincere apology and attempt at contrition (although I've never had to pay Blogspot).  Posting was weak last week.  It was exam week and we all know how that goes.  

This week, however, wants not for content as we have the first edition of the BCS poll (meaning the pro-/anti-playoff mobs sharpen their pitchforks), three legitimate undefeated teams, a realization that UConn might be mediocre (at best), and status quo in the ACC.  Of course, by writing about all of these potential/impending posts I pretty much accept that they will never be written and I'll begin the next post with the usual excuses (studying, Gossip Girls, invasive fungi).

But enough about me, let's talk about you.  Onto the Mumme Poll!  

Top Five:
Bama- Yeah I know: a win is a win is a win is a win.  They're in the top five because they won, however their boa constrictor grip is a little looser than it was last week.  The injury to the gargantuan NT Terrance Cody is the worst thing that could have happened to the Tide; Matt Hinton points out that it was not until Cody left the game that Mississippi found an offense.   The evidence is damning, Bama needs Cody in a big, big way.  With Cody, the Tide held the (formerly) vaunted Clemson rushing attack to 0 yards (that happened months ago and its STILL impressive) and the vaulting Knoshown Moreno to 34, and, until Ole Miss, the Tide gave up 0, 2.69, 1.91, 2.97, 3.13, and 1.75 yards per carry.  The Rebs mustered only 6 carries for positive yardage (for a whopping, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 yards) and a total of 99 yards on 6 possessions, 5 of which went for three or fewer plays, while Cody was in the game.  But the Rebs went for 218 on 7 possessions after Cody went down.  The importance of Terrance Cody cannot be overstated.  Although...the Tide play Tennessee next week and a defensive line consisting of an third grader, my sister, and a half a box of Krispy Kremes could hold Tennessee to under 50 yards rushing.  
Texas- Wow...just wow.  Colt McCoy was perfect, enough has been said of that.  The offense scored touchdowns on 8 of 11 possessions (the 11th possession went 65 yards and ended the game, could easily have been a 9th TD) and had 3 drives of more than 80 yards...enough has been said of that.  Perhaps the most impressive bit from the Horns demolition derby, and there was a LOT of impressiving done by the Horns, is this: Mizzou had -6 yards through the first four possessions, three of which went 3 and out.  While the pass defense has been unsurprisingly torched, the run Texas run defense has only once surrendered 2 or more yards per carry, and they've held Oklahoma and Mizzou to 1.85 and 1.58 ypc respectively.  A cliche dictates that you win by running and stopping the run (see Bama, above), and Texas is certainly stopping the run.  Their porous pass defense makes me think that they'll trip up in a shoot out somewhere, probably Texas Tech or Okie State, but for the time being this is easily, easily the nation's best team. 
Penn State- The Lions were in trouble the first half.  The Lions were in business the second half.  So what changed from one half to the next?  Blogger Black Shoe Diaries attributes the successful second half to certain changes in the linebacking corps, not to take away from the follies of Nick Sheridan, who has absolutely no business playing quarterback at an FBS level, let alone at a program of Michigan's prestige.  Royster was his usual beast-tastic self and Clark went for his customary 200-250 total yards and a few touchdowns in a game that can be summed up as "easy-peezy-lemon-squeezy."  If the team gets by Ohio State this weekend then all that stands between PSU and an undefeated season, in what is undoubtedly JoePa's swan song, is a sneaky tough trip to Iowa City, the Hoosiers, and Sparty.  
Florida- I was tempted to put Georgia here, as Florida was off and Georgia's record is very comparable, if not slightly better.  Florida's dominating win over a s0-s0 LSU team is as good as the sum total of the Georgia's win over ASU and Vandy.  Both teams' have hung a half-dozen-ish mediocre pelts on their belts but get chances to really proves themselves during the coming weeks, with Georgia playing the same so-so LSU and the WLOCP.  
     But for whatever reason I consider Florida's loss to Ole Miss more reasonable than Georgia's prison raping by Bama.   The fact that I'm still high on Florida (sort of like Marcus Thomas!) and the emergence of the sprinting sprites Jeff Demps and Brandon James give the Gators the nod here.  If the LSU game was any indication, this team is only beginning to fulfill the expectations I laid down during the off-season.  
USC- There's nothing funny about a team who surrenders all of ten points in a three week stretch, and those ten coming all at once against Oregon.  That being said, you just know this team is going to slip up somewhere-you just know it.  The question with USC is always when?  They look unbeatable but, if you're aware of their trend of head-scratching losses, its a given that they'll drop a few that they shouldn't.  Will it be Arizona this weekend, Cal next, Stanford again? Who knows?  
     I'm hoping that loss comes soon because I really don't want to hear the talking heads of ESPN deem USC as "playing the best football of anyone right now."  What the hell does that even mean?

Rest of the Top Twelve:
Okie State
Tulsa 
Utah
Boise State
Georgia
Ohio State
Oklahoma

Notes and Musings
- Tulsa is in here only as long as they are undefeated.  I give them the nod based upon their record and the silly numbers they put up.  
-I'm glad Okie State beat Baylor as badly as they did as the win gave me an excuse to drop Texas Tech.  
-God have mercy if I have to rank Georgia Tech or Boston College anytime soon.
-Pitt/USF is bound to break the Big East shutout...aren't they.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Top 25: Insufficient Data are a Cold Bitch

Pre-season polls are difficult to create and almost impossible to rationalize.  There isn't any data with which to make any attempt at a resume ranking; thus we are left to struggle with bogus intangibles such as "momentum" and meaningless quantifications such as returning starters and we ultimately end up with either a poorly contrived power poll or a futile attempt at projection.  

That being said, it may be even more difficult to rank teams within the first three weeks of the season.  The issue is no longer a paucity of data but of the relevance of what little data we have.   With so many teams scheduling FCS teams or their functional equivalents (Syracuse, Duke, Utah State, etc), how do sort out all of the 2-0 and 1-0 teams?  Florida State beat Western Carolina 69-0, Penn State has blowout wins over Coastal Carolina and (a clearly down) Oregon State, Oregon has hung a combined 110 points on Washington and Utah State.  Who really gives a shit?  How are we to judge monumental blowouts by perceived "good" teams against blowouts by teams who are clearly amongst the dregs of FBS (Baylor's 51-6 win against Northwestern State and and Minnesota's 42-17 win over Bowling Green readily come to mind)?  And even after all of that how are we to compare the gimme games to those narrow wins over assumed decent, or even great, teams?  What are we to make of Cal's narrow win over Sparty, Wake's clutch win over Ole Miss, and Alabama's obliteration of Clemson?  

Now we see what a total cluster fuck is on our hands.  

I scoured the interwebs this past week searching for a solution to the Poll conundrum and fell upon cocknfire's BlogPoll ballot over at Garnet and Black Attack (a fantastic site for South Carolina and general SEC discourse).  Cocknfire filled out his ballot by first creating a poll off of the top of his head, he then created a spreadsheet listing the merits of "28 credible teams", he assigned appropriate point values (25 pts for the top spot, 1 for the 25th, etc) to each team in both polls and took the aggregate as his official BlogPoll Ballot. Mimicry is the most sincere form of flattery cocknfire, and I am fully prepared to mimic you...with one slight change.  

I'm reluctant to arbitrarily assign values to a team's wins and losses, that lends itself to too many inconsistencies and subjective measures.  To solve that I'm adopted Jeff Sagarin's computer rankings as a team's hypothetical "worth."  

Top of the Head Poll
1. Oklahoma
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Mizzou
5. USC 
6. Ohio State
7. Cal
8. LSU
9. Penn State
10. Texas
11. Auburn
12. Oregon
13. Wisconsin
14. ECU
15. USF
16. Arizona State
17. Alabama
18. BYU
19. Texas Tech
20. Wake Forest
21. Kansas
22. Utah
23. GTech 
24. Fresno State
25. UCLA

Resume-ish Poll
1. ECU (83.145)
2. UCLA (83.04)
3. Utah (82.14)
4. USC (76.93)
5. Cal (72)
6. LSU (68.97)
7. Bama (68.085)
8. Fresno St. (67.965)
9. BYU (67.515)
10. Auburn (67.045)
11. Wake Forest (66.5)
12. Texas  Tech (64.69)
13. Wisconsin (64.345)
14. Arizona State (63.73)
15. Oregon (63.57)
16. Oklahoma (61.935)
17. Georgia (60.255)
18. Ohio State (58.815)
19. Penn State (58.37)
20. Texas (58.34)
21. UConn (57.225)
22. Arizona (56.31)
23. Kansas (55.105)
24. USF (54.21)
25. Mizzou (53.285)

*Again the number in parentheses is Team's "Value"; Value has been computed as being the avg. rating (according to Sagarin) of the teams that Team has beaten.
** Remember this is not a rating of the BEST teams.  Its just a rating of who has done what this season.

Quick Observations from Resume-ish Poll
-Apparently a win over Illinois (70.75) isn't as valuable as a win over Washingto (72.25)...huh?
-The most valuable wins thus far have been VT, Tennessee, Michigan, WVU, and BC.  Boston College...huh?
-I'm surprised to see Oregon State and UVA valued right around Cincy.
-Is Utah's win over a depleted Michigan squad really that valuable?  Was it really that impressive?  

Final Poll
1. USC
2. Florida
3. Cal
4. LSU
5. ECU
6. OSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Auburn
9. Georgia
10. Bama
11. Utah
12. UCLA
13. BYU
14. Wisconsin
15. Oregon
16. Penn State
17. Mizzou
18. Fresno
19. Wake
20. Arizona State
21. Texas
22. Texas Tech
23. Oklahoma State
24. Georgia Tech
25. South Florida

Quick Observations
- I'm somewhat surprised to see Auburn ranked that high, though I'm fairly certain of their talent, they have yet to really impress me.  
- I'm actually VERY surprised to see Cal below USC.  Cal's wins over Sparty in week 1 was very impressive while their win over Wazzu was, in my eyes, at least, just as impressive as USC's win over UVA.  
- I'll work on a formula that will include such factors as margin of victory and home/away  for next week.  Bama's win over Tulane should NOT have gotten them as many points as it did.