-In case you haven't gotten it by now: I don't like Rutgers. No sir, not one bit. However, my bias is by no means responsible for their absence from my top 25. To put it simply: Rutgers is not top 25 caliber. I do not see how this offense will continue to produce without the pinball Ray Rice and All Big East tackles Pedro Sosa and Jeremy Zuttah (not to mention guard Mike Fladell). Sure Mike Teel, Kenny Britt, and Tiquan Underwood put up some fabulous numbers but their outrageous production was due almost entirely to a miserable non-con schedule. Look at Teel's conference vs. non-con splits (sans the Army game in which he threw a measly four passes). Against OOC teams (the 82, 119, 44, and 90th ranked pass efficiency D's in DI...and D-IAA Norfolk State) Teel threw for 13 TD's against 3 INT's for 295.2 ypg and 62.6 completion pct. Not bad. Now look at his conference numbers. 7 TD's against 9 picks, 236.7 ypg, and 58.5 completion pct. Quite the split there. Do any of us think these numbers improve without Rice and three new starters on the o-line?
Kansas, oh Kansas. Where do I begin. Rock M Nation covered Kansas as well as anyone could hope here. Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech rotate onto the schedule this year, and those three games, as well as a sneaky tough matchup against Colorado (a game the Jayhawks should have lost in 2007) and a trip to Columba, could all easily end in loses. I'd be shocked to see Kansas stay home for the post season. Likewise, I'd be shocked to see them win more than 7 games.
VaTech could win their division and still be unworthy of a top 25 ranking. The only reason anyone lists the Hokies in their preseason polls are because of the belief that a Bud Foster D is a Bud Foster D is a Bud Foster D. Unfortunately for the Hokies, Bud Foster is about all they have left on defense. They've lost 3 starters on the defensive line, standout linebackers Vince Hall and Xavier Adibi, and stud corner Brandon Flowers. While there is hope for the defense (like I said, Bud Foster is still calling the shots), not even the most optimistic of Hokies can reasonably expect much from the offense. Gone is Brandon Ore, down go Jahre Cheeseman and Kenny Lewis, gone are the top five (breath deep, repeat: top fucking five) receivers, and gone is tackle Duane Brown. The two highlights on offense are an inexperienced sophomore QB in Tyrod Taylor (the QB of the future is, sadly, not the QB of the now) and an incoming frosh RB Ryan Williams. If you thought the Hokies had trouble scoring last year (see 7 points against LSU and ECU, 10 against BC, and 23 against Ohio), you ain't seen nothing yet.
Hey! USC isn't your top 3! Dude!
It seems that everyone is pegging USC somewhere in the 1-4 range and they don't know why. They do it because USC...well...they're USC. Its as if they are entitled to a high preseason ranking. Yet the Trojans are as vulnerable as they've ever been in the past seven or so years. They return one starter from the o-line, are breaking in a new quarterback (who is out for a few weeks with a dislocated patella), feature a mess of unproven talent at RB, and a mess of yet to (and unlikely to be) realized talent at wide receiver. Even last year the Trojan offense was by and large very average. The few games they dominated (633 yards against Illinois to cap off the season, 509 against Wazzu, and 508 against ASU) came against clearly inferior teams.
Against Arizona (a narrow 20-13 win) their drive chart from the middle of the first quarter until the tail end of the third looks like such: punt, interception, interception, end of half, punt, punt, punt. All told, those "drives" totaled 28 plays for 65 yards, with 43 of those yards coming on one 12 drive that ended in that last "punt". Even the Trojan scoring drives were thoroughly unimpressive; other than a 10 play, 85 yard march for a TD in the first and a 15 play, 95 yard drive ending in a field goal to put the game away, they mustered a 10 play, 21 yard drive resulting in a field goal (the mighty Trojans...21 yards in 10 plays) and a 25 yard touchdown pass from Sanchez (he of "hide the patella" fame) to the departed Fred Davis.
Similar to the 'Zona game was the Trojans' win against Oregon State. Again, look at the drive chart. The longest drive of the game was 54 yards, resulting in a TD. Other than that you have 9 yards in 7 plays for a FG, 47 yards in 4 plays for a TD (26 of those yards came on the TD pass), and 14 plays in 3 yards for another TD. Mind you this was entirely in the first half. The second half was a completely different story, reading: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, end of game. Their average second half drive was 4.5 plays for 19 yards. I understand the Beavers had a wicked awesome defense (giving up only 70 rushing yards per game...yikes!), however a team purportedly possessing as much talent as USC should have done better than that.
My point is: USC should expect to see their offense drop off (perhaps significantly if the o-line can't gell and the wide receivers continue to underachieve) from last year. And when they did all of that last year...eesh. Top 5, certainly not. Top 10, certainly, by based entirely upon the strength of their defense.
LSU? Top 5? But...but...that can't be!
Admit it. If Perrilloux were still a Tiger, LSU would be a run away number 1. Even without Perrilloux this team is still absolutely loaded. In fact, they may well be better than they were last year.
Consider this. Gone is Early Doucet, but Terrance Tolliver, Demetrius Byrd, Brandon LaFell, and Richard Dickson all return. Gone is the steady "war-daddy" Jacob Hester and with him his team leading 1103 rushing yards, but the explosive Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, and Richard Murphy all return. Ciron Black and Herman Johnson continue to anchor the best left side of any o-line in college football. And, in spite of the loss of all-everything Glenn Dorsey, the d-line is still the best in America...and may even be better than last year's!
In fact, the only holes this team has are at quarterback, obviously, and in the secondary, where they lose Craig Steltz, Johnathan Zenon, and Chevis Jackson. Personnel wise, the holes in the secondary will be filled the immensely talented Chad Jones (LSU's top recruit last year) and Patrick Peterson (top incoming recruit); schematically, however, expect any deficiencies in the secondary to be more than masked by pressure generated by a murderer's row of a defensive line.
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