Preseason Look Ahead- Louisville

Tennessee opened 2005 ranked third in the nation. This was a team that had all of the makings of a national champion. They were led by two experienced quarterbacks, senior Rick Clausen and sophomore and stud-to-be Erik Ainge, featured the only two running backs ever to rush for 1000 yards in the same season in UT history (Gerald Riggs and Cedric Houston), a talented young corps of wide receivers featuring Brett Smith, Jayson Swain, and future first round pick Robert Meachem. While the offense was shaping up to be great, the defense was shaping up to be truly special.

The defensive line featured standouts Jesse Mahelona, Justin Harrell, and Turk McBride. Kevin Simon and Dallas Cowboys starter Kevin Burnett led the linebackers. NFL Draft picks John Wade, Jason Allen, and John Hefney roamed the secondary.

What happened once the season kicked off with UAB is history. Ainge looked harried and rushed and his receivers couldn’t catch a cold, a theme that would repeat itself throughout the season. The defense did all it could to bail out an anemic offense en route to a narrow 17-10 win. The Vols would end the season 5-6, the only losing season in Phil Fulmer’s tenure.



Such was the case, to a much lesser degree, with the Louisville Cardinals last season. They opened the season ranked 12 in the country and a favorite to win the Big East and possibly even challenge for a berth in the national championship.

Murray State came to Louisville on August 30, the game played out much like you’d expect it to. That next week though, something very interesting happened. Middle Tennessee State (pause for a moment, let that sink in) posted 554 yards and 42 points on the U of L defense. They scored on plays of 78, 23, 24, 39, 1, and 79 yards. Not only did the Cardinals surrender points in bunches, they flat out broke down and gave up big play after big play after big play. This knack for giving up big plays would continue throughout the season. Hell, even Syracuse scored on plays of 79, 93, 42, 60, 26, and 17 yards.

Brian Brohm’s brilliance, consistent and thorough as it was, was not quite enough to outscore opponents (and that was Louisville’s game plan in a nutshell: score a shitload of points and hope for the best). Even in the Cardinal’s most stunning defeats, Brohm shined. In the aforementioned loss to Syracuse (once again, let that sink in for a minute) Brohm threw for 555 yards and completed passes to 10 different receivers.

The numbers Brohm accumulated were astounding; throwing for 335 ypg and 30 touchdowns on the season en route to finishing 8th in the nation in passing efficiency. Unfortunately those numbers were overshadowed by the sheer horror that was the defense.



Brohm is gone and with him his top four pass catchers (including All Big East picks Harry Douglas and Gary Barnidge, in addition to Mario Urrutia, and Patrick Carter). The losses on defense aren’t quite as significant; they lose four of their top ten tacklers and 24.5 tfl’s from last year. But when your defense surrenders over 420 yards per game, maybe that’s not such a terrible thing.



In spite of some fairly significant losses, the offense shouldn’t miss much of beat in their second year under Steve Kragthorpe. Hunter Cantwell takes the reigns from the departed Brian Brohm. And while Cantwell cannot be expected to match the stellar numbers that became the norm under Brohm, his experience and leadership does not lend itself to too much of a drop off.

For most of the season, the Louisville offense was completely and utterly one-dimensional. The per game averages are extremely misleading in this case, the numbers show a modestly lopsided 146 rushing ypg and 341 passing ypg. These numbers held up through the first three weeks of the season as the team passed for an average of 157 more yards than they ran. At that point Kragthorpe must have lost the “Running Plays” section of his play book because (other than a win over NC State, the most balanced game Louisville played all year) from then until the come from behind win against Rutgers to close the season, Louisville averaged 268 more passing yards than rushing yards. Imbalance was a cruel bitch for the Cardinals last year, as they went 1-7 in games in which rushing yards accounting for less than 40% of their total offense.

The Cardinal’s offensive imbalance was largely similar to that suffered by South Carolina (145 more passing ypg than rushing), Duke (143 more passing ypg), and Kansas State (152 more passing ypg). To be sure, none of those teams are very good. In fact Duke is really bad.

There was really no explanation for Louisville’s pass happy attack. Eric Wood and George Busey were All Big East picks along the O-line, and Anthony Allen, George Stripling, Bilal Powell et al were (and are, save Allen who has elected to transfer) capable running backs. Likewise, there is no reason to expect that trend to continue. Kragthorpe’s Tulsa teams were meticulously balanced; from 2001-06 his teams averaged only 39 more passing ypg than rushing.

Given Kragthorpe’s past tendencies and necessity (so many experienced running backs, so few experienced running backs). Look for an offensive predicated on 40-45 rush attempts per game and a wholesome number of screens and dump off passes into the flats. The strengths of the offense are painfully obvious: run, run, run, and run.



The strengths of the defense, however, are a little less obvious. In fact, the defense may not have any strengths. "It's hard to be positive about this performance today," defensive coordinator Ron English said of an April 5th scrimmage. (www.courier-journal.com)

The 95-play scrimmage began with both the first and second team offense on their own one-yard line. In spite of the field position, Cantwell led four consecutive scoring drives. Brock Bolen opened the scrimmage with a 34 run and Cantwell punctuated the drive with a 45-yard pass. Matt Simms and the second team scored even faster as Simms connected with Troy Pascaly for a 99-yard touchdown. English has yet to correct the defense’s unusual propensity for surrendering big plays. Over/under on pursuit drills done by the defense per practice until the spring game: 75. I’m going with the over

The Louisville Courier-Journal summarized the defense’s performance by saying this: “the defense struggled to contain runs on the outside, cover receivers and pressure the quarterback.” The editor apparently thought that sounded better than: “The defense can’t do anything right”.

Depth at linebacker might be at the heart of Louisville’s Achilles heel (anatomically nonsensical metaphor-score!). The top four linebackers are all gone (as is Willie Williams). The projected starters are a Miami transfer, a JUCO transfer, and a converted safety who has been described as “unremarkable” by the Courier-Journal. The inexperience at LB may or may not be a good thing, to be totally honest. Do you really want to return anyone from last year’s defense?



Way Too Early Prognostications

Projected Wins: Kentucky, Tennessee Tech, Kansas State, Memphis, MTSU, Syracuse

Projected Losses: South Florida, Pitt, WVU, Cincinnati,

Swings: Rutgers