Wednesday, October 29, 2008

One Last Note from Homecoming...

The 42 passes thrown Saturday, by a redshirt frosh making his first start, against two NFL caliber corners, in a blustery wind, keep bugging me.  

I though, "why would we chance to pass so oft?"  
          (iambic pentameter...fuck yeah!)

The questions kept nagging at me so I went back and looked at the box score/drive chart/play-by-play from the game and found an interesting, albeit entirely unsurprising, correlation between sustained drives and passing.  

We went three and out 6 times (which isn't very good, by the way.  In fact, is pretty bad.) and those six three and outs consisted of 14 pass plays.  Half our three and outs went pass-pass-pass and only two of our three and outs are readily justified; one drive began with consecutive false start penalties, and I can reconcile trying to pass out of first and twenty (...sort of), and one began with a three yard loss by Donnie Brown. 

Make of it what you will.

I'm just going to say that I wouldn't shed a tear if Donnie was given 50 carries against WVU.  

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Mumme Poll, Week 9

Texas.  Colt McCoy.  Awesome.  

McCoy's excellence continues to be the story of the season; his numbers are gaudy, even by Big 12 standards.  I'm shocked whenever I see a ball hit the ground.  If this were baseball, we'd say McCoy is "locked-in" or "raking" (mmm...sports cliches).   To put this in some context: McCoy is completing 81.8% of his passes, the current single season record stands at 73.4% by Daunte Culpepper.  McCoy is currently on pace to complete 322 passes, a clip of (assuming 13 games) 25 completions per game.  Lets assume Culpepper was slinging passes at the same rate as McCoy; Culpepper, in this hypothetical scenario, completes 22 passes per game.  And I don't think Central Florida played the same caliber of teams that Texas does.  

On to the Mumme Poll

Top 5
Texas- I really have nothing more to say.  This team is an absolute steam roller with razors  on the rollers and laser guns in the headlights.  Driven by a shark.  With a lightsaber.  

Bama- Forced Tennessee (...sigh) into five three and outs and allowed only two drives of longer than 31 yards.  While Tennessee's offensive ineptitude has as much to do with these numbers as Bama's defensive dominance, we must give credit where credit is due.  In spite of the yardage numbers, Bama scored on 6 of 10 possessions and, had Saban felt like it, could have made that 7 of 10.  Jim McElwain's offense was, again, excellent. They were their usual ball-controlling selves, with four of their 10 drives going for more than 50 yards.  Tennessee had allowed a total of 11 such drives during the previous seven games, with three of those coming against Florida.  So yeah...Bama looks pretty good.

Penn State- This team, likely to win out, has zero shot at a National Championship.  The Lions likewise lack a National Championship caliber resume.  I'm as sentimental as the next fella and I would love to see Joe Paterno punctuate his career with a NC, but this team has done nothing to deserve it.  The relative weakness of the schedule is not entirely Penn State's fault (Coastal Carolina.  What the fuck?), the Big 10 just so happens to be down across the board.  The closest thing Penn State has to a marquee win is the blowout against Oregon State.  Who beat USC.  ...nope, not really feeling that one.  Kudos for the fine season boys, and I'll be rooting for you to beat Oregon State again in the Rose Bowl.  

Florida- The Gators have scored 110-ish points in the past two games, against teams whose prior worst defensive efforts yielded 24 points.  Lost somewhere in the Demps/James/Harvin quarkback meme is Tim Tebow's re-emergence.  His numbers, though still down from those of his Heisman campaign, belie a quarterback bent on ruthless efficiency.  Tebow's passing efficiency is 11th nationally and he has thrown all of two picks, and yet he's made nary a blip on the national radar.  Oh how callous can be capricious fate!  ESPN has exchanged last year's Tebow-mania for piles of Colt McCoy porn, and rightfully so.  
     Look out for this team, though.  They are just beginning to get humming.  My preseason expectations for the Gators were astronomically high, think 1995 Nebraska high.  And they are just now living up to my expectations.  

Georgia- I'm ecstatic that I no longer feel obligated to put USC here.  The Trojans get bumped for both a very meh-inspiring win over Arizona and a fantastic win by Georgia.  LSU, though they are clearly down from last year, is still a very good team, better than probably 105 other teams, and a win over the Tigers is still a feather worthy of any hat.  And that feather becomes even more precious when it comes to the tune of 52 points...in Death Valley.  Knowshon gashed the Tigers for 68 yard TD, during which Verne Lundquist exclaimed "[Moreno] doesn't have great speed," and Stafford went for 249 without an interception.  Ouch.  
     The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is once again one of the season's most important games and it may prove to be the defining game of 2008.  Florida and Georgia lock horns for the right to play Alabama for the SEC Championship and, likely, a berth in the NC Game.  Georgia and Florida come into the game ranked 6 and 8, respectively, by the BCS, but the winner, by virtue of an astoundingly strong win, could easily vault up to number 4.

The Rest of the Top 12

Utah
TCU
Boise State
USC
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
Oklahoma State

Notes:
-Tulsa has been bumped in favor of TCU, who has allowed 21 points during the past three games and has held BYU to their lowest point total since WEEK ONE OF 2005.  TCU is real, very, very real.  
-Ugh.  I don't want to rank Oklahoma State at all.  Their win over Mizzou has lost a considerable bit of luster and they lack a great win other than that over the Tigers.  They deserve credit for playing Texas tough, but then again Tulane deserves some credit for playing Alabama tough.  It came down to Okie State, Mizzou, or Ohio State for that last spot.  I couldn't rank Mizzou over Okie State if I hold that the Cowboy's win over Mizzou is merely okay and I can't move Ohio State into the poll fresh off a loss.  
-I was tempted to rank Florida State, but that 6 turnover game against a suddenly mediocre Wake Forest still stinks to high heaven.



Sunday, October 26, 2008

Post-Game Wrap Up: Cincy

- Two numbers in particular stand out, and I will wager that we'll hear much made of them throughout the week.  0-14, as in Cincy's third-down conversions, and 3-18, as in UConn's third-down conversions.
     Holding Cincy to an O-fer on third down is as impressive a stat as one could quell from this game, but UConn's third down offense was as terrible as the defense was fantastic.  
     By holding Cincinnati to 1.9 yards per carry, effectively eliminating all hopes they had of running the ball, we forced the Bearcats to try and convert on a number of 3rd and 6 and 3rd and longs.  Cody Brown didn't want that to happen, though, so he took it upon himself to play the wrecking-ball game.  Pike, and later Chazz Anderson, could barely drop back without Brown or Lindsey Witten or Julius Williams breathing down his neck.  Pressure like that is a vital necessity when you blitz as infrequently as we do (although, I can, off the top of my head, think of 5-ish blitzes we ran, an unusually high number for a UConn defense).
     After Cincy's only TD drive, which was punctuated by one of the best damn bubble screens that I've ever seen, Pike went 5-14 with a pick and was replaced by Anderson after the half.  
     A big hat-tip goes to the fellow running the jumbotron for replaying Pike's interception during the middle of the third quarter.  I'm sure that reliving that throw boosted Pike's spirits, he and his buddy's probably had a good, hearty, deprecating laugh at his expense.  

-Cody Brown is about to make some serious, serious NFL cash.  7 sacks, a blocked punt, and countless hurries will get you noticed.  If he continues at this rate, finishes with 10-12 sacks, we may see him join Darius Butler as a first day NFL draft pick. 
     As good as Brown and Butler have been, as many plays they've made for UConn over the years, their swan song may come in the NFL draft.  Not only would a pair of first day picks provide some much needed national exposure, but it would validate our burgeoning identity as a "football school."  While I doubt that we'll ever be a football school in the sense of a Penn State or Michigan, those schools whose names are intrinsically synonymous to college football, but we can realistically rise to the level of an Arizona State or Oklahoma State.  

-42 passes.  42 passes.  42 passes?  Randy, honey, come on.  Honestly.  I said after the UNC game that you don't want to pass when you have the nation's leading rusher and a quarterback making his first start.  Cody flashed a ridiculously strong arm, but he seems to have two settings: "off" and "Death Star laser beam."  He consistently overthrew his receivers by a solid foot or two; Edsall, during his postgame, chalked the overthrows up to Endress attempting to compensate for the win, but I'll wager nerves and inexperience were as much factors as the wind.  

-The direct snap/attempted Wildcat to Donnie Brown was suh-weet!  I've been waiting all season for something like that.  Our offense, at the risk of oversimplifying things, is so "conventional" (albeit effective) and I just love seeing new-fangled wrinkles like the Wildcat being thrown in there.  Dear UConn Coaching Staff-  More Wildcat, puhweez.  Love-Everyone.

-David Teggert is the man.  I've said enough.  

-At least WVU reverts to form right before coming to the Rent.  Next week's game will not be 66-21, not with Coach Gomer roaming the sidelines

Monday, October 20, 2008

Mumme Poll, Week 8

I begin this post like I tend to end sex...with a sincere apology and attempt at contrition (although I've never had to pay Blogspot).  Posting was weak last week.  It was exam week and we all know how that goes.  

This week, however, wants not for content as we have the first edition of the BCS poll (meaning the pro-/anti-playoff mobs sharpen their pitchforks), three legitimate undefeated teams, a realization that UConn might be mediocre (at best), and status quo in the ACC.  Of course, by writing about all of these potential/impending posts I pretty much accept that they will never be written and I'll begin the next post with the usual excuses (studying, Gossip Girls, invasive fungi).

But enough about me, let's talk about you.  Onto the Mumme Poll!  

Top Five:
Bama- Yeah I know: a win is a win is a win is a win.  They're in the top five because they won, however their boa constrictor grip is a little looser than it was last week.  The injury to the gargantuan NT Terrance Cody is the worst thing that could have happened to the Tide; Matt Hinton points out that it was not until Cody left the game that Mississippi found an offense.   The evidence is damning, Bama needs Cody in a big, big way.  With Cody, the Tide held the (formerly) vaunted Clemson rushing attack to 0 yards (that happened months ago and its STILL impressive) and the vaulting Knoshown Moreno to 34, and, until Ole Miss, the Tide gave up 0, 2.69, 1.91, 2.97, 3.13, and 1.75 yards per carry.  The Rebs mustered only 6 carries for positive yardage (for a whopping, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 yards) and a total of 99 yards on 6 possessions, 5 of which went for three or fewer plays, while Cody was in the game.  But the Rebs went for 218 on 7 possessions after Cody went down.  The importance of Terrance Cody cannot be overstated.  Although...the Tide play Tennessee next week and a defensive line consisting of an third grader, my sister, and a half a box of Krispy Kremes could hold Tennessee to under 50 yards rushing.  
Texas- Wow...just wow.  Colt McCoy was perfect, enough has been said of that.  The offense scored touchdowns on 8 of 11 possessions (the 11th possession went 65 yards and ended the game, could easily have been a 9th TD) and had 3 drives of more than 80 yards...enough has been said of that.  Perhaps the most impressive bit from the Horns demolition derby, and there was a LOT of impressiving done by the Horns, is this: Mizzou had -6 yards through the first four possessions, three of which went 3 and out.  While the pass defense has been unsurprisingly torched, the run Texas run defense has only once surrendered 2 or more yards per carry, and they've held Oklahoma and Mizzou to 1.85 and 1.58 ypc respectively.  A cliche dictates that you win by running and stopping the run (see Bama, above), and Texas is certainly stopping the run.  Their porous pass defense makes me think that they'll trip up in a shoot out somewhere, probably Texas Tech or Okie State, but for the time being this is easily, easily the nation's best team. 
Penn State- The Lions were in trouble the first half.  The Lions were in business the second half.  So what changed from one half to the next?  Blogger Black Shoe Diaries attributes the successful second half to certain changes in the linebacking corps, not to take away from the follies of Nick Sheridan, who has absolutely no business playing quarterback at an FBS level, let alone at a program of Michigan's prestige.  Royster was his usual beast-tastic self and Clark went for his customary 200-250 total yards and a few touchdowns in a game that can be summed up as "easy-peezy-lemon-squeezy."  If the team gets by Ohio State this weekend then all that stands between PSU and an undefeated season, in what is undoubtedly JoePa's swan song, is a sneaky tough trip to Iowa City, the Hoosiers, and Sparty.  
Florida- I was tempted to put Georgia here, as Florida was off and Georgia's record is very comparable, if not slightly better.  Florida's dominating win over a s0-s0 LSU team is as good as the sum total of the Georgia's win over ASU and Vandy.  Both teams' have hung a half-dozen-ish mediocre pelts on their belts but get chances to really proves themselves during the coming weeks, with Georgia playing the same so-so LSU and the WLOCP.  
     But for whatever reason I consider Florida's loss to Ole Miss more reasonable than Georgia's prison raping by Bama.   The fact that I'm still high on Florida (sort of like Marcus Thomas!) and the emergence of the sprinting sprites Jeff Demps and Brandon James give the Gators the nod here.  If the LSU game was any indication, this team is only beginning to fulfill the expectations I laid down during the off-season.  
USC- There's nothing funny about a team who surrenders all of ten points in a three week stretch, and those ten coming all at once against Oregon.  That being said, you just know this team is going to slip up somewhere-you just know it.  The question with USC is always when?  They look unbeatable but, if you're aware of their trend of head-scratching losses, its a given that they'll drop a few that they shouldn't.  Will it be Arizona this weekend, Cal next, Stanford again? Who knows?  
     I'm hoping that loss comes soon because I really don't want to hear the talking heads of ESPN deem USC as "playing the best football of anyone right now."  What the hell does that even mean?

Rest of the Top Twelve:
Okie State
Tulsa 
Utah
Boise State
Georgia
Ohio State
Oklahoma

Notes and Musings
- Tulsa is in here only as long as they are undefeated.  I give them the nod based upon their record and the silly numbers they put up.  
-I'm glad Okie State beat Baylor as badly as they did as the win gave me an excuse to drop Texas Tech.  
-God have mercy if I have to rank Georgia Tech or Boston College anytime soon.
-Pitt/USF is bound to break the Big East shutout...aren't they.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Mumme Poll, Week 7

The Mumme Poll was devised by Senator Blutarsky over at Get the Picture, a Georgia and SEC -centric blog.  The Poll was inspired by New Mexico State (and former Kentucky) head coach Hal Mumme's wacky ass number one vote for Hawaii last season.  

What makes this poll worth mentioning, as opposed to your run of the mill resume ranking or arbitrary power ranking, is that it is based upon an "approval rating."  Basically Sen. Blutarsky has the 59 Mumme Poll voters submit a ballot of 12 teams, no rankings, with only the top 5 designated as such (again, the top five are unranked; they are simply labeled "top 5").  Teams will then be rated by how often they appear in each voter's ballots, with the top five designations being used as tie breakers.  Follow?  No?  Well then fuck you.  

So without further ado, I give to you my Ballot for the week

Top Five: 
Texas- This team has been more and more impressive each week.   The importance of their win over Oklahoma cannot be overstated; put simply, Texas has the inside track to the B12 championship game (brought to you by Dr. Pepper) and, by reason of the "B12-SEC rulzzz!!!" meme, the national championship.  Texas is certainly not without flaws, however, and their 98th ranked pass defense (244 ypg, yikes!) and that Colt McCoy is their only consistent rushing threat makes their stay near the top a precarious one, at best, especially given the quality of quarterbacks in their conference.   Games against Mizzou, Okie State, Texas Tech, and Kansas will all test their defensive mettle. 
Alabama- They have yet to trail this entire season.  That is all. 
Florida- If you all will recall, I was bullish on Florida throughout the preseason.  And although meh-tastic games against Miami and Ole Miss put a damper on my enthusiasm for the Gators, any team that can drop 51 on LSU is deserving of, at the very least, a "top 5" designation.  The offense has finally loosened up and, against LSU of all teams, resembled my expectations.  Jeff Demps has emerged as the running threat beyond the two headed monster of Tebow/Harvin and has rushed for over 100 in consecutive weeks, both times posting sick nasty ypc's of over 12.  
Penn State- It kills me that all signs point to Penn State being left out of the national championship.  Their curb-stomping of Wisconsin, in Camp Randall, cements their place as one of the nation's elite.  This team, unlike B10 teams of years past, is actually a lot of fun to watch; the continued emergence of Derrick Williams, Evan Royster, and Staphon Green and the consistent excellence of Daryl Clark makes this offense Penn State's best in a long time, perhaps even surpassing the Mike Robinson led 2005 squad in fantastic-acity.  I do not see anyone challenging this team the rest of the way, Ohio State will be hard pressed to score double digits and Michigan...well...no need to pour water on a drowning man.
USC- I really hate to give them a "Top 5" designation, I really do.  They won ugly against Arizona State, turning the ball over 5 times.  In fact, I don't even know why I'm putting them in my top 5-I've railed against the Trojans all season long, why begrudgingly bestow upon them respect now?  Ughhh, they wouldn't be here if I hadn't already submitted my ballot.  Damn you, Pete Carroll.  If only we weren't friends on FaceBook.  
     This team is painfully overrated and gets by more upon reputation than by actual on-field dominance.  Hell, look at me!  In spite of my notorious cynicism, even I am unable to resist!  I'd not be shocked if USC lost another clunker somewhere down the line.

Rest of the Ballot:
BYU
Tulsa
Georgia
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Texas Tech (another team I don't want to rank)
Boise State

Notes:
-Conspicuously Absent: LSU, Missouri
     With Auburn's slow demise (seriously?  Arkansas?  Dude, what the fuck?), LSU is without a stellar, or even solid, victory on which to hang their hat.  And they certainly didn't look like a "good" team against the Gators.  Missouri, while their offense is WHOOSH-BAM!, suffers from a terrifically mediocre defense and will likely drop another game before the season is done (probably to Texas next week).  Even their vaunted offense was stymied by the Cowboys (enter obligatory "I'm a man, I'm 40" reference here).
-Bullish on Mid-Majors
    No one has come even close to hanging with the Broncos; it took a furious 19-point fourth quarter rally for Oregon to bring the game within 5...and this was in Autzen!  Boise State will go undefeated without breaking much of a sweat, but unfortunately, their belt will probably lack a truly shiny pelt, as Oregon doesn't look like anything special this year.  They could still make it to a BCS poll depending upon movement above them, popular sentiment, and BYU.
    Tulsa has been dropping bombs all season long, tallying point totals of 45, 56, 56, 62, 63, and 37.  When your worst point total is 37 points, you're doing something very right.  And while their defense may be a bit suspect (see 342 yards to Central Arkansas) this team is still deserving of a vote based upon their flaming fireworks wagon of an offense and 6-0 record.  

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Louisvile...

Is not a very good team.  They looked great against UConn (and what does that say about the Huskies?) but, beyond that game, they've been thoroughly unimpressive.

Take a look at their game tonight against Memphis (before Doc Saturday does in his excellent weekly segment, "Life in the Margins):  not only were the Cards out-gained by 182 yards but they benefitted from 2 fourth down conversions and 3 Memphis turnovers.  Louisville was, on a play-by-play basis,  absolutely dominated.  In fact, the Cardinals would not have even been in this game had it not been for several marvelous Memphis miscues (see what I did there?  Pretty cool, huh?).

Louisville totaled a respectable 35 points, 7 from a fumble return, 7 from a kickoff return, and 7 more from a missed field return.  Were that not enough, they even managed to be unimpressive during their two legitimate scoring drives: one drive went all of 38 yards, leaving the Cardinals with but a single actual drive.  

Ughhh.  So much for UConn's one decent win.

Thursday, October 9, 2008

Random Stat of the Week

Infrequent posting as of late, sorry.  Life has intervened and taken precedent over the blog.   

I did, however, notice this stat and thought it so amazing that it was worth noting on the blog.

Texas Tech has surrendered 1 sack in 262 attempts.   That means that TTech is sacked on only 0.38% of their pass attempts.  On the other hand we have Texas A&M (Mike Sherman...giggle giggle) who has been sacked 13 times in 145 pass attempts, thats a sack on 8.96% of their pass attempts.  

Saturday, October 4, 2008

UNC- Halftime Thoughts

- You have the nation's number 1 rusher and  a red shirt sophomore quarterback starting his first game, on the road, in front of a sold out crowd, so on 3rd and 2 you...pass?  Huh?

-You have fourth and two around midfield, you've had two punts blocked, and should have had another blocked, and you still have the nation's leading rusher, so you...punt?  Huh?

-Frazer looked great on the first and last drive of the half.  That second pick was totally on Kashif Moore.  

-Frazer needs to quit forcing the ball into double coverage.  

-How is this only a two score game?  

-Penalties.  I know how Matt Hinton, over at Doc Saturday, rails against the perceived value of a penalty, but honestly...what the hell?  Its like we've just shot our selves in the foot and then decided to shoot ourselves in the other foot-you know, just to even things up, brah.

-Having looked at the drive chart, our defense is playing a damn fine game.  UNC has really only had one good drive, and even that ended in a field goal.  Field position is killing us, right now.

-That option to Todman in the first quarter was awesome.  I've been looking for something like that all season.  

-If we want to win this game we need to give Donnie 20 carries, Todman 10-12, and Dixon/Frey/Butler another 10-12.  Frazer, though, for the most part, I've liked what I've seen, cannot carry this team.  21 passes to 15 Donnie Brown carries will not cut it.

On an unrelated aside: if you don't already know, I've followed the University of Tennessee for my entire life and to see the Vols in such a state of terrific disarray kills me.